5 options for Liam Lawson’s Formula One career as Red Bull wait continues

Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.
THREE KEY FACTS
Alex Powell is an Online Sports Editor for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016, and previously worked for both Newshub and 1News.
OPINION

As usual,
this Formula One season has been just as dramatic off the track as it has on it.

In particular, the storylines around the future of New Zealand’s Liam Lawson have dragged on since the end of 2023, as Red Bull faces a ticking clock to secure his future.
Lawson is highly regarded within Red Bull’s ranks. That’s not in question. However, internal politics have played their part in keeping the Kiwi on the sidelines for 2024 – so far.
Red Bull’s senior adviser Dr Helmut Marko has confirmed the Herald’s initial reports of a September deadline to get him into a seat.
And as the clock ticks closer to that date, here’s how Lawson’s future with the team could play out:
If Marko’s comments are anything to go by, Lawson is all but assured of his place on next season’s grid.
Red Bull have spent millions of dollars in developing Lawson since he was a teenager, and will likely be reluctant to lose out on that altogether.
Reading between the lines, Lawson will almost certainly sign to join Racing Bulls next year, and take the place of Daniel Ricciardo in doing so.
What happens to Ricciardo after that isn’t exactly settled either, especially with the form of Sergio Perez as Max Verstappen’s partner.
As far as Lawson goes, though, Red Bull won’t waste this chance to build for the future.
Likeliness rating: 9/10
While acknowledging Lawson’s place on the 2025 grid is effectively secured, what happens in 2024 is still up for grabs.
Earlier this year, Marko went on record stating he wants to see Lawson driving at some point in 2024. As of yet, that’s not happened, and there are still nine races on the calendar for him to get his wish.
Should Lawson win the race with Ricciardo for the 2025 seat, it wouldn’t be entirely out of the question that Red Bull cut their losses on the Australian altogether, and give the Kiwi the rest of this season to prepare for the next.
Red Bull’s ruthlessness with drivers is nothing new. In 2017, Kiwi Brendon Hartley was afforded the rest of the season at what was then Toro Rosso, before taking over fulltime.
Likeliness rating: 8/10
Given Ricciardo’s commercial value to the sport as a whole, it could also be an option for Red Bull to keep him for the rest of 2024, and look to use him somewhere else in 2025.
The Australian is much-loved in the United States, and with races in Austin and Las Vegas still to come, he will no doubt be part of Red Bull’s strategy for those grands prix.
However, that does leave Red Bull in a rock and hard place as to what to do with Lawson.
After the Dutch Grand Prix on Monday (NZT), Williams boss James Vowles is understood to have sounded out Red Bull over taking Lawson on a short-term deal for the rest of the season in place of current driver Logan Sargeant.
Interestingly, while Marko has said that won’t happen, Red Bull senior team principal Christian Horner has said he is open to the move.
Aside from the obvious behind the scenes conflict within the organisation, that could still open a door for Lawson in 2024.
Likeliness rating: 5/10
If the current speculation around Lawson’s future wasn’t enough, wait until September.
After missing out on a 2024 seat, Lawson’s new Red Bull contract had a clause that frees him to leave, should the same scenario play out this year.
Aside from Red Bull, just two seats are unfilled on the 2025 grid.
Mercedes are yet to replace Ferrari-bound Lewis Hamilton, and look increasingly likely to put 18-year-old Kimi Antonelli into that car to partner George Russell. What’s more, Red Bull wouldn’t risk giving a title-rival a driver in the shape of Lawson.
Audi-backed Sauber are also known to be interested in the Kiwi, due to the presence of former Red Bull sporting director Jonathan Wheatley as team principal next year.
However, the Herald understands that Audi have since shifted their attention away from Lawson, perhaps as a sign his future has already been secured.
Likeliness rating: 2/10
Not going to happen, but apparently these lists work better with odd numbers of options.
Lawson and Red Bull have put too much into this journey for either side to cut ties now.
While there might be a day where the Kiwi has had enough of the politics of motorsport’s pinnacle, it won’t be any time soon.
Likeliness rating: 0/10

Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.